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Millions of long term undocumented residents could be protected by the Biden Administration

The Biden administration should step up to provide immigration relief for the unprotected population, particularly for those living in the U.S. for several years

April 10th, 2024

“More than two-thirds (68%) of undocumented individuals in the U.S. lacking deportation protection have been waiting a decade or more for immigration relief.”

While President Biden has made significant progress in rebuilding the legal immigration system, no significant action has been taken to provide relief to long-term undocumented residents of the United States. Dreamers (undocumented young people who entered the U.S. as children) and mixed-status families (families with at least one undocumented person and one non-undocumented person), for example, continue to live in limbo and were left out of recent Congressional efforts to reform the immigration system.

According to FWD.us analysis of U.S. Census and other governmental data, only a small share (15%) of immigrants receiving recent protections from the Biden administration entered the U.S. before 2021. In fact, more than two-thirds (68%) of undocumented individuals in the U.S. lacking deportation protection have been waiting a decade or more for immigration relief.¹ Unprotected immigrants have lived in the U.S. for 16 years on average, with a median age of 39. More than two-thirds (68%) of unprotected individuals live with a U.S. citizen, like a spouse or child.

This unprotected population already contributes an estimated $192 billion each year in spending power to the U.S. economy after the payment of taxes. Many are also employed in industries experiencing worker shortages, including professional and business services (680,000), accommodation and food services (670,000), healthcare services (260,000), and other services (340,000).

Solutions for unprotected immigrants

Fortunately, President Biden still has tools to provide relief for as many as 3 million undocumented individuals without deportation protection. These combined immigration relief proposals, as listed below, would also enable some 3 million U.S. citizen children and 1.8 million U.S. citizen adults living with unprotected individuals to have greater certainty in their family’s future in the U.S. Doing so is a moral and political imperative. Protecting undocumented immigrants, particularly those who have lived in the U.S. for a long time, is popular with American voters, and many members of Congress support it.

Table: Number of unprotected individuals eligible for proposed relief, by state (click + to expand)

Estimates based on unprotected individuals eligible for TPS expansion, parole in place for those with U.S. citizen spouses, and affirmative cancellation of removal for parents of U.S. citizen children.

Source: FWD.us estimates based on augmented 2022 American Community Survey data, projected to 2023 using governmental data. See our 2023 methodology for more information.
Note: Rounded to thousands.

Immigration relief for undocumented spouses of U.S. citizens

More than 800,000 currently unprotected individuals are married to a U.S. citizen, with a total of 1.1 million of all undocumented individuals—both unprotected and protected—living in a mixed-status family.

Source: FWD.us analysis of 2021 American Community Survey data, using this methodology for the assignment of immigrant status.

Because many undocumented spouses are subject to immigration bars that could be triggered if they applied for permanent residency, most remain living in the shadows to avoid family separation. The Biden administration could offer parole in place for this population, case by case, permitting them protection from deportation, and giving them access to work authorization and an alternate pathway for adjustment to lawful permanent residency. This would help keep hundreds of thousands of American families together, including as many as 200,000 families of Dreamers, of which 90,000 are Deferred Action on Childhood Arrivals (DACA) recipients.

Temporary Protected Status (TPS) expansion

TPS is a form of immigration relief, under the legal authority of Congress or the administration, that provides work authorization and deportation protection for those whose home countries are very unsafe for return. Several countries in Central America, including El Salvador, Honduras, and Nicaragua, were designated for TPS several years ago. These Latin American countries, as well as Guatemala and Ecuador, continue to have unsafe conditions that warrant TPS (re)designations. Additionally, Nepal has also not been redesignated for TPS, and conditions in Haiti continue to warrant a redesignation of TPS. Finally, several African countries like the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mali, and Mauritania have conditions unsafe for return, and also warrant TPS protections. Overall, hundreds of thousands of undocumented individuals without protections could benefit from TPS expansion, including 300,000 Dreamers, of which 50,000 are current DACA recipients.

The majority of Americans in battleground states support TPS expansion, and evidence shows that such designations can reduce future irregular migration. Hundreds of thousands of unprotected individuals could benefit from TPS expansion for these countries. If all the countries named above were (re)designated for TPS in 2024, nearly 900,000 additional U.S. citizen children and more than 500,000 additional U.S. citizen adults living with TPS potential individuals could remain together, safe from family separation through deportation.

Work visa pathways for Deferred Action for Childhood Arrival (DACA) recipients and other Dreamers

Additionally, the administration could provide more predictability for employers who want to sponsor DACA recipients and other Dreamers for nonimmigrant employment visas (e.g. H-1B), to reduce the length of time they would be required to leave the U.S. to receive their visas. According to FWD.us estimates, there are roughly 87,000 DACA recipients who are employed and have a bachelor’s degree, minimal conditions for skilled worker visas.

The Biden administration could streamline the D3 waiver process by issuing specific guidance recommending expedited processing and approvals for the most straightforward DACA cases, pre-processing applications in the U.S. before visa applicants depart, and creating centralized processing locations that allow for third-country national processing. Such actions would reduce risk and create more certainty, encouraging more employers to pursue these visas for their employees.

Caregiver relief

Immigration law permits caregivers facing deportation to request cancellation of removal and an adjustment to a permanent status. Eligibility for cancellation of removal includes living in the U.S. continuously for ten years or longer and having an immediate U.S. citizen family member who would experience extreme and unusual hardship if the undocumented individual were to be removed. However, cancellation of removal can only be initiated in the courts defensively, meaning that the caregiver must already be in deportation proceedings.

The Biden administration should move swiftly to establish an affirmative process, similar to how affirmative asylum works. This could allow thousands of the estimated 1.6 million undocumented parents without protection, who have lived in the U.S. for ten years or longer and have a U.S. citizen minor child, to seek relief, including as many as 240,000 Dreamers who are parents of U.S. citizen children.

“All together, these proposals could benefit as many as 3 million individuals, or more than a third of the undocumented population without protection.”

The Biden administration can protect millions of unprotected individuals

All together, these three administrative proposals—immigration relief for undocumented spouses of U.S. citizens, TPS expansion, work visa pathways for Dreamers, and affirmative cancellation of removal for undocumented parents of U.S. citizen children—could benefit as many as 3 million individuals, or more than a third of the undocumented population without protection, after overlaps in eligibility for these relief proposals are taken into account. For Dreamers alone, an estimated 450,000, or about 1 in 5, eligible for the Senate’s Dream Act could benefit from this group of proposed administrative policies.

These proposals, fully within the administration’s lawful authority and executive power, would also provide increased protection for current DACA recipients, who continue to face the threat of legal challenges to the policy. For this group alone, such proposals could provide alternative protections for nearly half or more than 200,000 DACA recipients living in the U.S.

The Biden administration has an opportunity to make significant progress towards immigration relief for long-term undocumented individuals. Our economic leaders want it, the American public approves it, and immigrant families desperately need it. Now is the time.

Notes

For methodological details on how we estimated the characteristics of the unprotected population, see our methodology for identifying immigration status to respondents of the U.S. Census Bureau’s 2022 American Community Survey and demographic projections using other governmental data for a total immigrant population as of September 30, 2023.

Phillip Connor

Senior Demographer

phillip@fwd.us

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