Population estimates in this report reflect TPS-eligible and TPS potentially eligible holders as of September 30, 2023. Immigration status assignments performed by FWD.us researchers using the 2022 American Community Survey (ACS) provide the base data for the data analysis. Other government data, including figures from Customs and Border Protection (CBP), U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, and Department of Homeland Security, allowed researchers to add to the underlying 2022 ACS data to obtain end of 2023 estimates. (See our complete methodology for 2023 immigrant assignment.) Note that several countries are not itemized by CBP, including Afghanistan, Cameroon, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, Mali, Mauritania, Nepal, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Syria, and Yemen; consequently, population estimates for these countries are solely based on the 2022 ACS.
Some TPS-eligible individuals have no immigration status and thus are unprotected, while others have a protected status such as parole or are waiting on a decision in their asylum case. Estimates, then, are considered conservative, as they do not include those who entered the U.S. without an encounter with border authorities or those with nonimmigrant status. The population estimates assume no emigration of TPS-eligible individuals since 2021. Potential TPS holder characteristics, including state of residence, are the same as undocumented peers from the same country who entered the U.S. during 2021 and 2022; consequently, they do not reflect new destination patterns within the U.S.
Industries deemed to have labor shortages are those that consistently had 4% or more of its jobs open January through September 2023, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Current contribution to the U.S. economy is based on spending power, or total wages after the payment of federal, payroll, state, and local income taxes. Additional billions of dollars contributed to the U.S. economy through TPS designation is based on a multiplier from a predictive regression model using the 2022 ACS that compares TPS holders from El Salvador (2001 original designation), Honduras (1998 original designation), and Nicaragua (1998 original designation) with undocumented adults without any protected status who entered the U.S. before 2000, controlling for several economic and demographic characteristics. This multiplier was added to the current economic contributions of TPS individuals by demographic groups. The TPS economic boost reflects the additional spending power.