The Trump Administration tried to hold onto a Republican House by spending the last three weeks trying to make the caravan and their hardline immigration policies the centerpiece of their midterm election strategy. This strategy failed, with the House flipping, fueled by a massive rejection of these policies in the suburbs.
The very voters who were critical to ensuring Republicans held the majority in the House were the most offended by policies like family separation and DACA repeal. They saw the last three weeks as politically motivated, and voters rejected this effort to stoke fear.
Importantly, several of the most ardent anti-immigrant voices lost their races, including Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach in the governor's race, Rep. Dave Brat in Virginia's 7th district, Corey Stewart in VA-SEN, and Rep. Lou Barletta in PA-SEN. These candidates campaigned on harsh anti-immigrant rhetoric and turned off huge swaths of key voters in doing so.
Here are the stories predicting that House Republicans would lose among suburban voters, who ultimately rejected restrictionist policies and rhetoric at the ballot box:
NBC // Leigh Ann Caldwell and Jonathan Allen // Republicans worry that Trump's closing argument will cost them seats (11/6)
Now, as voters head to the polls, some Republicans worry that message could backfire and cost some of the most vulnerable GOP House incumbents and candidates in suburban districts or in districts with larger minority populations.“This stupid birthright stuff is hard-right fringe and loses us Hispanics and Cubans" in places like California and Florida, said one moderate Republican House member. “It juices Hispanic turnout in exurbs for potentially one to three points and is another reminder why Trump’s doom and gloom bullshit is so off-putting.”
The Washington Post // Peter K. Enns and Jonathon P. Schuldt // Why Trump’s immigration rhetoric may not help Republicans at the polls (11/6)
Will these tactics help Republicans going into Tuesday’s elections? Our data suggests that the answer is no. But more than that, after Tuesday, Republicans in Congress may find it difficult to deliver on an issue that Trump has now doubled down on: immigration reform.
The Washington Post // Karen Tumulty // This state will be the clearest test of Trump’s dire immigration rhetoric (11/6)
Trump is no doubt revving up the Republican base, but he risks doing the same for those who oppose his policies, particularly suburban women and Latinos. “There are people who I think will be energized by his commitment to secure the border, and I also think there will be those that say, well, there he goes again,” Sen. Jon Kyl (R) told me.
The New York Times // Alex Burns and Jonathan Martin // Trump’s Nationalism Is Breaking Point for Some Suburban Voters, Risking G.O.P. Coalition (11/1)
Rather than seeking to coax voters like these back into the Republican coalition, Mr. Trump appears to have all but written them off, spending the final days of the campaign delivering a scorching message about preoccupations like birthright citizenship and a migrant “invasion” from Mexico that these voters see through as alarmist. … In Republican-leaning districts that include diverse populations or about cities that do — from bulwarks of Sunbelt conservatism like Houston and Orange County, Calif., to the well-manicured bedroom communities outside Philadelphia and Minneapolis — the party is in danger of losing its House majority next week because Mr. Trump’s racially-tinged nationalism has alienated these voters who once made up a dependable constituency.
The New York Times // Astead W. Herndon and Sydney Ember // Republicans Have a Humming Economy to Tout, but Trump Rhetoric Muddies the Message (11/2)
“The problem is Republicans have a good story to tell in the economy,” said Mike Murphy, a former adviser to Jeb Bush, John McCain and Mitt Romney. “But the Republican with the largest microphone only wants to go on these rants about immigration.” Mr. Trump, he said, is “managing to offend every swing voter in the country.”
WSJ // Peter Nicholas and Rebecca Ballhaus // Trump, Obama Make Final Pitches on Eve of Midterm Elections (11/5)
While the [immigration] issue roused Mr. Trump’s core conservative base, it alienated suburban voters in swing districts that are important to the GOP House majority, Republican strategists said. … “The fear angle isn’t going to work in districts that are in play,” the aide said. “These are issues that are not helping with the Republican voters that we need to hold onto a House majority.”
New York Magazine // Ed Kilgore // Trump’s Base-Pandering May Be Hurting Republicans in Swing Districts (10/12)
Republican candidates in these areas can try to establish an identity distinct from their toxic president, but that’s always tough in midterms, and even more difficult with a president like Trump, who dominates the airwaves and the internet to an extent never seen before. And when that same omnipresent POTUS ratchets up his rhetoric to a deafening roar of demagogic partisanship, driving his MAGA legions into a hate rage against immigrants and minorities and the media, it’s almost impossible for an old-school reasonable Republican to break through the noise. And most don’t even try anymore.
Vox // Ezra Klein // Republicans are paying the Trump tax (11/7)
Trump’s decision to keep the country in a constant state of agitation and his critics in a constant state of mobilization has failed. His effort to use immigrants to scare Americans rather than touting the economy to unite them lost the House. Republicans, rather than reaping the rewards of a booming economy, are facing a blistering electoral repudiation. The only reasons their losses are contained is that gerrymandering and geography have tilted the map in their favor, and so, like Trump himself, the share of power they win obscures how badly they lag Democrats in vote totals.
Associated Press // John Hanna // Kobach's immigration emphasis falls short in Kansas (11/7)
Republican Kris Kobach made fighting illegal immigration a key issue in running for Kansas governor, echoing President Donald Trump’s tactics in the campaign’s final weeks. It didn’t work, and Democrat Laura Kelly defeated him. Kelly won even though Kobach was Trump’s most visible ally in the state and the president came to Kansas to campaign for him.
Documented NY // Daniel A. Medina // NY Voters Reject Anti-Immigrant Sentiment (11/7)
“What has happened in the last two weeks is that President Trump’s doubling down on immigration actually dampened intensity in these districts where there are sizable number of independent voters,” said Chishti. “The president overplayed his card.”
The Washington Post // Jennifer Rubin // Republicans pay the price for racism and xenophobia (11/7)
By contrast, a party whose elected officials remain overwhelmingly white and male might find it increasingly difficult to appeal to an electorate that is becoming more diverse. When 72 percent of voters say they think it’s important to elect more racial and ethnic minorities and 78 percent say it’s important to elect more women, Republicans might want to consider why they have so few nonwhite and female candidates and whether they are leaving votes on the table.
The Hill // Rafael Bernal // Dem pollsters see immigration as a winning issue (11/6)
Democratic analysts say their numbers show the president's strategy is backfiring. “It does provide some energy to their base, but it backfires with people of color, and with suburban voters, and independent voters, particularly independent women,” said Celinda Lake, president of Lake Strategies. “It is also a strategy that energizes our base,” she added.
The Hill // Tess Bonn // Trump’s ‘dehumanizing’ rhetoric will discourage progress on immigration, says consultant (11/6)
Last week, Trump tweeted a controversial new ad linking the migrant caravan with Luis Bracamontes, a man convicted of killing two California police officers. The ad, which critics called racist, was pulled from the air by both NBC and Fox News. Trump stood by the ad, arguing Monday that "a lot of things are offensive." Cummings said she found Trump’s final pitch to voters very troubling and that doubling down on this rhetoric undermines American democracy and any hope for a unified nation.“It’s time for us to move forward — not look backward — and I certainly hope that the president gets that message.”
WSJ // Rebecca Ballhaus // Trump, White House Prepare for Election Results (11/6)
Anticipating the House would flip, Republican operatives have already begun second-guessing Mr. Trump’s strategy of putting illegal immigration front-and-center in the run-up to the election. While the issue roused Mr. Trump’s core conservative base, it alienated suburban voters in swing districts that are important to the GOP House majority, Republican strategists said.
Washington Monthly // David Atkins // Trump’s Fox News Addiction Is Hurting Republicans in the House (11/6)
Which leads us to Trump’s self-destructive impact on House Republicans. The president has rightly discerned that his fellow deplorables aren’t going to be motivated to vote by good economic numbers: after all, he knows as well as anyone that a strong traditional metrics don’t translate to broad confidence and job security in the real modern economy. So to encourage base Republican turnout Trump has turned to good old racism and sexism: accusing Kavanaugh’s accuser of lying about being assaulted, and ramping up fears of immigrant caravans among the unique terrified older white conservatives who make up his core constituency.
Vox // Ezra Klein // The fall of the not-quite-Trumpers (11/6)
The small cadre of Sanford-style Trump skeptics face near-extinction. Many are retiring or being beaten. Those who remain are assimilating. They have quieted, or abandoned, their criticisms of the president after seeing the fates of their colleagues. The next phase of the Trump era will begin in Washington with a Republican Party purged of most of the members of Congress who sought — and largely failed — to act as the party’s conscience. The question is whether it matters.
The Cut // Amanda Arnold // 3 Conservative Women on Why They’re Voting for Stacey Abrams (11/6)
Right now, I feel like my party is forcing me out. I have been angry. I’m one of the 63,000 women who marched in Atlanta: Republican Women Against Trump, my sign read. He doesn’t embody anything that I stand for. Some of the stuff that I hear coming out of his mouth deters me from voting Republican.
Politico // Nolan D. McCaskill // HOW REPUBLICANS CAN KEEP THE HOUSE — Ryan phones Trump — WOMAN POISED TO JOIN SENATE GOP LEADERSHIP — Obamacare repeal still on the table? (11/6)
House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) implored the president in a phone call Sunday to talk about the economy in the final hours of the campaign cycle. Trump — who will hold his final midterm campaign rallies today in Cleveland; Fort Wayne, Indiana; and Cape Girardeau, Missouri — bragged that his rhetoric on immigration has fired up the base. “Republicans focused on the chamber are profoundly worried that Trump’s obsession with all things immigration will exacerbate their losses,” Rachael, Carla Marinucci and Elana report.
The Washington Post // Karen Tumulty // This state will be the clearest test of Trump’s dire immigration rhetoric (11/6)
Trump is no doubt revving up the Republican base, but he risks doing the same for those who oppose his policies, particularly suburban women and Latinos. “There are people who I think will be energized by his commitment to secure the border, and I also think there will be those that say, well, there he goes again,” Sen. Jon Kyl (R) told me. Kyl, who previously served three terms in the Senate, is back there again after being appointed to replace John McCain, who died in August.
The Washington Post // Peter K. Enns and Jonathon P. Schuldt // Why Trump’s immigration rhetoric may not help Republicans at the polls (11/6)
Will these tactics help Republicans going into Tuesday’s elections? Our data suggests that the answer is no. But more than that, after Tuesday, Republicans in Congress may find it difficult to deliver on an issue that Trump has now doubled down on: immigration reform.
Slate // Jim Newell // Why Trump Doesn’t Care About House Republicans (11/5)
Trump’s immigration message has improved Democrats’ positions in various House districts that Republicans felt comfortable in just a few weeks ago, particularly those Texas, Florida, and California districts with significant Hispanic populations. “His homing in on this message is going to cost us seats,” a senior House GOP campaign source told Politico. “The people we need to win in these swing districts that will determine the majority, it’s not the Trump base; it’s suburban women, or people who voted for [Hillary] Clinton or people who are not hard Trump voters.”
Newsweek // Nicole Goodkind // Will Donald Trump Cost Republicans +The Midterms By Telling Voters Polls Are 'Fake News' And 'Tools of Suppression'? (11/5)
But the fake poll narrative tuns a real risk for the right this Tuesday, said Evan Siegfried, a Republican Strategist. “It’s a real risk that voters will think polls are fake news and stay home, that’s a massive risk,” he said. “What’s the incentive for them to show up? I mean it’s not like a sports game where you have tickets and you go.” Siegfried, who has been analyzing voter registration numbers this election cycle, said that Democrats have significantly outpaced Republicans in new voters. “The voter registration data is really bad, it is really bad for Republicans,” he said. “If Democrats don’t take back the House, they don’t deserve to exist as a party. That’s how bad it is for us.”
WSJ // Peter Nicholas and Rebecca Ballhaus // Trump, Obama Make Final Pitches on Eve of Midterm Elections (11/5)
While the issue roused Mr. Trump’s core conservative base, it alienated suburban voters in swing districts that are important to the GOP House majority, Republican strategists said. … “The fear angle isn’t going to work in districts that are in play,” the aide said. “These are issues that are not helping with the Republican voters that we need to hold onto a House majority.” Sarah Chamberlain, a GOP strategist who has been campaigning with House Republicans in the suburbs of New York and Philadelphia, said the boisterous Trump rallies don’t speak to Republican women in these precincts.
Slate // William Saletan // Exit Polls Show the GOP May Be Digging Itself Into an Ideological Hole (11/7)
Voters disapproved of Trump’s performance on immigration, trade, Supreme Court nominations—virtually every issue but the economy. They said he wasn’t honest or trustworthy (by a 26-point margin), didn’t care about people like them (by 17 points), and didn’t have the right temperament to be president (by 29 points). Most voters said Trump’s administration was less ethical than previous administrations; only a quarter said his administration was more ethical.
CNN // Jeff Zeleny // Trump 'hated' his campaign's closing ad and insisted on immigration pivot (11/5)
President Donald Trump was not pleased by the marquee closing TV ad his campaign unveiled last week featuring upbeat themes about the economy. "He hated it," one Republican official said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss internal conversations the President had with allies. Instead, he insisted to aides that his closing argument for the midterm elections would be a hardline anti-immigration message to fire up his core supporters, two Republican officials familiar with the matter tell CNN. House Republican sources who had been frustrated with the President for a number of reasons this election year very much liked the ad touting the economy because it was a rare appeal to the very suburban female voter they are worried about losing big time — largely because of the President's polarizing rhetoric.
The Guardian // Allan J. Lichtman // The midterm results will reveal what drives voters: a love or hate of Trump (11/5)
Two-thirds of respondents to an NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll taken in late October said that Trump will be a factor in their midterm votes; 23% said that he will be a minor factor; 44% said he will be a major factor. A similar poll taken before the midterm elections of 2014 found that then president Barack Obama would be either a minor or a major factor in voting for only 47% of respondents.“This is definitively a national election,” Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, said. “With a referendum on Trump.”
Politico // Rachael Bade, Carla Marinucci, and Elana Schor // Trump has hijacked the election': House Republicans in panic mode (11/4)
Two days out from an expected Democratic takeover of the House, Republicans focused on the chamber are profoundly worried that Trump’s obsession with all things immigration will exacerbate their losses.
The Washington Post // David Weigel // The Trailer: The Republicans' dilemma in New Jersey(11/4)
“They could have run on the economy, but that’s not what they chose,” Malinowski told 30 voters gathered at a downtown restaurant. “They chose fear. They chose crackpot conspiracies about poor folks who are 1,000 miles away from the U.S. border, people who won’t reach it for two months if they reach it at all.”
Forbes // Andy Semotiuk // How Immigration Policy Might Decide The Election (11/4)
Tactics: Republicans – President Trump tends to speak in terms of hyperbole and exaggeration, using words describing immigration policies as a "total nightmare" and that the U.S. is the "laughing stock" of the world in terms of its immigration policy. While exaggerated, his views are broadly reported.
ABC News // Rick Klein // Ratify or reject? Midterm elections offer referendum on Trump presidency (11/4)
But if the midterms are about everything, they’re really about one very big thing: Trump. Trump has scrambled politics and the norms that have governed it with a chaotic, freewheeling, and hard-right governing style. He has divided where his predecessors have sought to unite, and put himself in the middle of territories where previous presidents have tread lightly. The president’s closing message — warning of threats of an “invasion” of migrants, mobilizing troops to the border, and musing about changing laws regarding citizenship — fits with the divisive themes and fact-challenged assertions that have defined his time in office.
The Wall Street Journal // Janet Hook and Reid Epstein // A Test of Trump: Midterms Could Result in a Mixed Verdict (11/4)
Senate Republicans gained some traction touting the Kavanaugh confirmation, then Mr. Trump turned attention to illegal immigration. “Trump’s going to close the way he’s going to close,” said Scott Reed, the political strategist for the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. “We just wish it was couched more in terms of the success of the economy, Kavanaugh, and the consequences of the Democrats taking over.”
The Washington Post // John Wagner // On last Saturday before the midterms, Democrats and Republicans make closing arguments on what’s at stake (11/3)
Much of Trump’s closing argument has centered on immigration, with the president casting Democrats as wanting to turn the nation into a sanctuary for undocumented immigrants. During Saturday’s Montana rally, Trump addressed criticism that he has talked more about immigration than the economy, which many Republicans consider to be the party’s strongest argument ahead of the midterms. Trump pointed out correctly that he had addressed the economy earlier in his remarks, but he said there was only so much he could say about job reports and other positive indicators before losing his audience. “I can only go for four or five minutes with that stuff,” Trump said, adding that he also wants to talk about “problems we want to fix.”
CBS // GOP Strategist: Trump’s immigration stance is “biggest risk” to Republicans in midterms (11/2)
GOP strategist Dan Senor says the "biggest risk" to Republicans heading into the midterm elections is President Trump's handling of immigration issues, which he says convey "chaos." Senor served as a senior adviser to Paul Ryan and Mitt Romney during the 2012 presidential campaign.
NBC // Rachel Maddow // Some GOP candidates stranded by Trump's low-road 2018 strategy (11/1)
Rachel Maddow looks at how Donald Trump's strategy of pushing extreme racist and xenophobic fear-mongering in the last days of the 2018 campaign season is hurting some of his party's candidates who were already struggling against records of attacking Obamacare's popular pre-existing condition protections.
NPR // Jessica Taylor // Here's Why Democrats Are Confident They'll Win The House (11/1)
Further complicating their efforts are President Trump's unpredictable tweets and his pivot to scare tactics over immigration and a push to end birthright citizenship, which top GOP strategists were aghast over this week. That base-focused message could help in deep red states needed to hold the Senate, but it could be a disaster in marginal seats with heavy Hispanic populations. "The headwinds were already massive, and I think this birthright stuff is going to hurt badly in some of these districts in Florida, Arizona, California and Texas," bemoaned one longtime House GOP strategist.
Politico // Gabby Orr // Trump's immigration obsession could backfire, some Republicans fear (11/1)
“You’re playing at the margins with Republicans on the issue of immigration, but there are very many more Democrats that might be mobilized by his rhetoric,” said conservative radio host and The Resurgent editor Erick Erickson, who called Trump’s immigration-heavy closing pitch “not smart politically” in a tweet earlier Thursday.
New York Magazine // Ed Kilgore // Trump’s Base-Pandering May Be Hurting Republicans in Swing Districts (10/12)
Republican candidates in these areas can try to establish an identity distinct from their toxic president, but that’s always tough in midterms, and even more difficult with a president like Trump, who dominates the airwaves and the internet to an extent never seen before. And when that same omnipresent POTUS ratchets up his rhetoric to a deafening roar of demagogic partisanship, driving his MAGA legions into a hate rage against immigrants and minorities and the media, it’s almost impossible for an old-school reasonable Republican to break through the noise. And most don’t even try anymore.
Social Media
Twitter // Maggie Haberman (@maggieNYT) // 11/7 (6:15AM) // Link
The immigration hard-liners who had Trump's message before Trump did, and who were running their own races, almost all lost last night. … Trump can talk about an issue and his voters respond, but that doesn't make it an affirmation of the issue in isolation. It's an up/down referendum on Trump for his voters. Also – the "very dangerous" caravan may not get quite so much play from the White House now
Twitter // Manu Raju (@mkraju) // 11/6 (3:29PM) // Link
Finger-pointing already beginning as GOP braces for possible loss of House. A number of Rs say Trump's scorched-earth immigration message hurt vulnerable incumbents in key districts in TX, FL and Cali, taking away from their "jobs vs. mobs" argument.
Twitter // NBC News (@NBCNews) // 11/6, 6:42 AM) // Link
Some Republicans worried that President Trump's campaign rhetoric has gone too far and will cost some candidates in today's elections.
Twitter // Tomi Ahonen (@tomiahonen) // 11/6, 8:23 AM) // Link
So there are DIRE warnings by REPUBLICANs to Trump, that his racism is hurting 2018 midterm election. I see slight, SLIGHT impact in VERY recent polling, which SUGGESTS there is an awakening among Hispanics… it COULD drive a surprise 'anti Trump' vote worth about 2% nationally
Twitter // Anderson Cooper (@AC360) // (11/5, 6:22 PM) // Link
.@GloriaBorger: President Trump is beginning to understand that “women are just deserting the Republican Party in droves,” in part due to his rhetoric.
Twitter // Jim Newell (@jim_newell) // (11/5, 4:53 PM) // Link
Trump's nonstop immigration talk is basically giving House Rs the finger for Senate R's sake, so that he can say he saved the party
Twitter // Oliver Darcy (@oliverdarcy) // (11/5, 3:32 PM) // Link
Sources tell @jeffzeleny that Trump was not pleased with the closing TV ad unveiled last week by his campaign which focused on the economy. One Republican official said he "hated" it. Per Zeleny's sources, Trump insisted on a hardline anti-immigration message instead.
Twitter // MSNBC (@MSNBC) // (11/1, 11:31PM) //Link
.@Maddow looks at how President Trump's strategy in the last days of the 2018 campaign season is hurting some of his party's candidates.